After weeks in which polls consistently showed Zionist Union holding a slight lead over the Likud Party of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli leader effected a dramatic comeback to win a decisive victory in Israeli elections on Tuesday.
With 99 per cent of precincts reporting, Netanyahu’s Likud had won 30 seats – a quarter of the Knesset and six more than the Zionist Union’s 24.
“Against all odds: a great victory for the Likud. A major victory for the people of Israel!” Netanyahu posted on Twitter shortly after exit polls came out.
The Likud victory came after initial exit polls from three Israeli television stations showed the top two parties in a virtual tie. That result would have itself represented a vast improvement for Likud, which had been polling in the 20-23 range as recently as Friday.
But official returns that came in hours later showed Likud emerging as the clear victor. Netanyahu now has a relatively easy path to forming a coalition of his so-called “natural partners” on the right and the religious parties, along with the centre-right Kulanu party.
Netanyahu’s right wing and religious bloc will account for 57 seats in the next Knesset, while the centre-left will have 49. The Arab-Israeli Joint List won 14 seats to become the third-largest party.
The result provides a conclusive finish to a fierce and largely negative campaign in which both Netanyahu and Herzog campaigned with variations on the slogan “It’s Us or Them.”
The Joint List, a combined slate of several smaller Arab factions, was one of the election’s biggest winners. Driven by elevated turnout among Arab-Israelis, the Joint List’s 14 seats are a gain of three from its current Knesset representation.
Ayman Odeh, the party’s charismatic leader, has committed himself to working on improving the lives of Arab-Israelis but has vowed not to join a governing coalition.
Throughout the campaign, voters said their top issue was Israel’s high cost of living. They reiterated that demand on Tuesday, giving Kulanu a strong showing with 10 seats. Party founder Moshe Kachlon, a former Likud minister, had focused almost exclusively on socio-economic issues during the campaign.
The other party with a strong economic focus, the centrist Yesh Atid, fell from 19 to 11 seats.
Kulanu may well emerge as the election’s kingmaker. Netanyahu needs its support to form the next government, giving it a powerful bargaining chip when negotiating for positions in ministries and Knesset committees.
Herzog conceded defeat in a telephone call to Netanyahu Wednesday.
“We’ll be a fighting, socially-minded party that will serve as an alternative in all areas,” Herzog wrote on Facebook Wednesday morning. “And we will fight together with our partners for the values we believe in.”.
As Election Day drew near, leaders on both sides urged voters to close ranks around their respective flagship party. Voters moved away from smaller parties, enabling Likud and Zionist Union to increase their Knesset representation. Likud succeeded in closing a polling deficit of several points in the campaign’s final days.
The religious Zionist, pro-settler Jewish Home party, which grew from three to 12 seats in the 2013 vote, fell back to eight in the election.
On the left, the staunchly leftist Meretz fell from six seats to four, and its chairman, Zehava Galon, announced her resignation Wednesday morning. The right-wing Yachad party, founded by former Shas chairman Eli Yishai, did not pass the electoral threshold and will not enter the next Knesset.
Among the biggest losers was Yisrael Beiteinu, the hardline faction led by Foreign Minister Avigdor Liberman. The party, which had 13 seats in the previous Knesset, was hit with a corruption scandal early in the campaign and wound up with just six seats.