TEL AVIV — As mass demonstrations raged in the streets of Cairo and pressure was building on Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak to resign, pundits as well as Israelis from all walks of life weighed in on how the turmoil in Egypt could affect Israel.

TEL AVIV — As mass demonstrations raged in the streets of
Cairo and pressure was building on Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak to
resign, pundits as well as Israelis from all walks of life weighed in on
how the turmoil in Egypt could affect Israel.

Jewish and Arab
Israelis, some holding Palestinian flags, continued their protest near
the Egyptian embassy in Tel Aviv calling for the resignation of Egyptian
President Hosni Mubarak. Some protesters held signs with anti-Mubarak
slogans which read: “It’s time for the regimes of tyrants to be replaced
around the world.” Israeli police ensured the security of the embassy.
[Flash90 photo]

Tel Aviv-based blogger Benjamin Kerstein, writing on Pajamasmedia.com, put the Israeli interest in Egypt in context in his entry, “Watching Egypt burn: an Israeli perspective.”

“Like the rest of the world, Israel doesn’t know what to think about the revolution in Egypt,” Kerstein wrote. “We aren’t even sure if it really is a revolution. We certainly don’t know if it’s good or bad. And we have absolutely no idea what the eventual outcome will be.”

But, he continued, “Unlike the rest of the world, what is happening now in Egypt has immediate and potentially disastrous consequences for the Jewish state.”

Given this reality, it’s no wonder most commentators have envisioned the worst-case scenario, namely that rather than leading to the election of a democratic government, the outcome of the current unrest in Egypt will be a power vacuum that will create an opportunity for the ascent of a radical Islamic entity, as happened during the Iranian Revolution in 1979.

Abbas Milani, director of Iranian studies at Stanford University and co-director of the Iran Democracy Project at the Hoover Institution, thinks that will happen in Egypt. Milani told Mideast blogger Michael Totten in an interview, titled “The Iranian Revolution echoes in Egypt,” that the Muslim Brotherhood, the only large, organized opposition group in Egypt, is  likely to fill any vacuum left by Mubarak.

The potential consequences for Israel of a hostile Islamist government in Egypt are obvious and go beyond the dissolution of Egypt’s peace treaty with Israel. As one Israeli woman, 37-year-old Rotem Cohen, sipping coffee in a Tel Aviv café put it, “The worst case scenario for Israel? Instead of having Lebanon on one side, we’ll have Lebanon on three sides, or even four, between Egypt, Gaza, and now maybe Jordan, too.

“That’s the scariest thing about what’s happening right now,” said Cohen, a mother of two. “It seems to be spreading to other places in the Arab world, and look at the pattern – wherever there’s weakness, Iran jumps in and takes over. That’s what happened in Gaza and in Lebanon.”

Cohen doesn’t predict all-out war, such as Israel faced in 1967. “No, what we’ll have is what we have in Lebanon – semi-state-affiliated terrorist organizations operating autonomously from the government, fighting proxy wars for Iran, with a government that’s not strong enough to stop them or do anything about it. Except instead of one front, we’ll have it on all sides.”

Harvard Law School professor Alan Dershowitz raises another potential consequence for Israel – that a hostile Islamist leadership in Egypt will lead to the end of Israeli-Palestinian peace negotiations.

In “The Egyptian revolution may produce a Lebanon-type Islamic regime”  which Dershowitz wrote for the Huffington Post, he said, “The first casualty may well be the peace process between Israel and the Palestinians. The Palestinian Authority will be emboldened by the prospect of a powerful military ally on Israel’s border. The Israelis will be reluctant to surrender any more territory if they can no longer count on peace with Egypt (and perhaps with Jordan).”

The worst-case prospect of an all-out regional security crisis has been a painful reminder to some Israelis of the state’s existential fragility. Ha’aretz commentator Aluf Benn pondered how the state will protect itself, given that the current defence structure is based on peace with Egypt and that military values have eroded over the years.

“And who exactly will be serving in this expanded army – the ultra-Orthodox and Arabs, who are more or less exempt from conscription? Or maybe the immigrants from Eritrea and Sudan, who already know the lay of the land?” Benn asked in “The fall of Mubarak means decision time for Netanyahu.”

Are Israelis afraid for the future? If they are, you would never know it from the mood on the streets, where everything is business as usual. Then again, as Cohen said, “Haven’t you noticed that Israelis are never openly fearful? Even in the heat of the war in Lebanon, when there were missiles falling, people didn’t seem outwardly fearful. It’s just the Israeli way.”

On the more optimistic side are those Israelis who are inspired by the calls for democratic reform in Egypt and anticipate the positives of gaining a democratic Arab neighbour. One such Israeli is  Anshel Pfeffer, who wrote a column called “Why should Israel be the only democracy in the Mideast?” for Ha’aretz.

Some believe that if democracy emerges, it will mean an even stronger and more reliable brand of peace with Egypt. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu alluded to this possibility in a recent speech covered by Ha’aretz. “As much as the foundations for democracy are stronger, the foundations for peace are stronger,” he said.

Others who are inspired by Egypt’s democratic movement are less hopeful about its outcome. “It’s a revolution that I think is happening for all the right reasons but is going to have all the wrong results,” Cohen said.

“It was inevitable. These Arab dictatorships are so oppressive that resistance was bound to erupt. But it’s a rebel without a cause thing. It’s people saying what they don’t want, but no one leading, and when no one leads, whoever is most powerful takes over and in this case, it looks like it will be radical Islamists,” she added.

Even if the revolutionaries get the democracy they are fighting for, Israel may still suffer dire consequences.

In an interview on the Global Research in International Affairs Center website, director Barry Rubin reviewed the latest Pew poll.

“In Egypt, 30 per cent like Hezbollah… 49 per cent are favourable toward Hamas… and 20 per cent smile… at Al Qaeda. Roughly speaking, one-fifth of Egyptians applaud the most extreme Islamist terrorist group, while around one-third back revolutionary Islamists abroad,” Rubin said.

“Asked if they supported ‘modernizers’ or ‘Islamists,’ only 27 per cent said modernizers, while 59 per cent said Islamists… This doesn’t tell us what proportion of Egyptians want an Islamist government at home, but it is an indicator.”

The neighbouring Arab country may become democratic, but as Totten writes in “Egypt needs liberalism,” it doesn’t mean Egyptian society’s popular values will be conducive to positive relations with Israel.

Ynet op-ed writer Avi Trengo said in “Peace in Egypt’s interest” that no matter what happens, Egyptian peace with Israel will remain intact because of economic interests, and the fact that many of Egypt’s economic ties to the United States are contingent on the maintenance of peace with Israel.

Others, like man-on-the-street Moshe Lazar, are not so sure. “One of the things that stops Egypt from attacking Israel is American support,” says the 36-year-old Tel Aviv resident, who is a captain in an Israel Defence Forces reserve infantry unit. “But Muslim extremists don’t care about that.”

Lazar says the best-case scenario for Israel is the Egyptian military taking over and stabilizing the country. “Everything else, starting with a fragile coalition and ending with the Muslim Brotherhood, is not going to be good for us.”

Lazar’s view echos Mideast expert Daniel Pipes opinion in “Turmoil in Egypt” in the Washington Times. “Heavy-handed rule will lighten somewhat in Egypt and elsewhere, but the militaries will remain the ultimate power brokers,” Pipes wrote.

Rothschild Café dweller Roee Mizrachi, 34, from Givatayim, said she is less certain about what the future will bring. “Who knows? It could be good for Egyptians, it could be bad. It could be good for Israel, it could be bad. My honest opinion is who the hell knows,” she said.

“It’s way too early to know, and as we’ve seen, everything can change in 24 hours.”